With inflation being on the tip of everyone’s tongue from the Taxi Cabs to CNBC I take a deeper look at the underlying asset prices that have a direct or indirect affect on markets and the world we live in today. I like to get a global picture to see what is driving market forces, the overall market health and the direction it is likely heading. There is little doubt there are a few key economic indicators here is my take on what I like to keep my eye on.
Steel is one of the biggest key economic indicators, It drives recovery and growth around the world. From the railway tracks, to cars, planes, trains, boats and bridges. It impacts every aspect of our lives. It is part of any major construction project which drives jobs and eventually key economic prosperity. As you can see Steel prices are parabolic compared to any time in recent history.
Iron is steel’s little brother for the same factors. I take a look at Iron prices here also.
Grains, Corn, Wheat – We all need to eat and these are prices of core staples. Any cost increase is surely likely to be passed onto you the consumer.
Lumber, Americans tend to love Lumber prices. Alot of construction is done using Lumber so this has an adverse affect on house prices.
The Assets owned by the Federal Reserve Bank, Who only knows what exposure they have to what markets across what asset classes, and at what leverage in all that madness. As you can see the trend continues unabated into 2021 on a parabolic trajectory. Presumably they have to stop at some point?
The price of ALL commodities is reaching and surpassing an all time high.
A final notable mention is Sunspots, I read somewhere there is a correlation between weather (sun) and market activity. I am not sure myself. Draw your own conclusions in this. It’s more whimsical to me but there are some research papers on it if you felt the need to go and search.
I have also used a Peak detection algorithm to detect any peaks, A Lot of these can also be correlated with market events, See for yourself, There are a lot of similarities to where we are now in 2020/1 where key asset prices have went parabolic before coming down very sharply in 2008.
I am not associated with any hedge fund this is a personal project, I have exposure long and short across a multitude of sectors, funds, alternative investments. If you want to use this feel free, Please message me about what context you want to use this and I can send you a none watermarked marked copy.
Again if you want to see something added feel free to DM me with an idea and I might see if I have the dataset or I can add it for you.
Link to PDF